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A lesson from Steve Bruce: Stats underline just how tough bouncing back from the Championship will be

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A lesson from Steve Bruce: Stats underline just how tough bouncing back from the Championship will be

Post  silvers on Mon May 15, 2017 7:04 pm

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So we now know who will be joining Sunderland in the Championship as the other relegated sides have now been confirmed. Browsing the stats, the chances of bouncing straight back look fair-to-middling at best. But the consequences of getting stuck down without being promoted could be far-reaching - as Steve Bruce has just found out.

by [url=http://www.sbnation.com/users/James Henchard]James Henchard[/url]@MrHenchard  May 15, 2017, 6:00am BST



Championship takes shape - who's favourite to bounce back?


So Hull City will join Sunderland and Middlesbrough in the Championsip next season. Humberside joins the Wear-Tees flops as those relegated from the Premier League.



The Tigers were unceremoniously dumped out of the top-tier following successive defeats against Sunderland and Crystal Palace. Quite simply, Marco Silva's unlikely rescue bid just ran out of steam.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]Billy Jones header has gone a long way to confirming Hull's relegation Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images
But such is the current faith that Silva will stay on Humberside and lead Hull back into the Premier League, bookies have already installed his side as favourites to bounce back at the first time of asking. The Tigers' boss is rated as a 1/3 chance of remaining in charge at the KCOM next season.

Bookmakers Ladbrokes have installed the Tigers as 10/3 favourites to be promoted from the Championship next season with Middlesbrough a little way behind at 4/1 and Sunderland presently at 5/1.



If you fancy a flutter on who will top the second-tier and win the Championship title, Hull are priced at 10/1, Middlesbrough at 12/1 and Sunderland at 16/1.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]Middlesbrough fans during the Tees-Wear derby last month, victory over Sunderland couldn't save them from the same fate as their visitors that night Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images


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Statistically speaking the chances of a swift return look mediocre


So it looks like Sunderland are going to finish bottom of the Premier League. Grim, but how much worse could it get?



Since the Premier League began in the 1992-3 season, of the teams finishing at the foot of the top-tier:



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  • Thirty-five percent have managed to bounce straight back from the Championship the next season - so nearly two-thirds haven't;

  • Nine percent have gone on to be relegated again with a drop into League One;

  • The average finish of those teams relegated has been ninth in the table in their first season in the Championship.


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But most alarmingly of all, only one team who has finished at the foot of the Premier League come the end of the campaign has ever been promoted within three years of relegation after failing to bounce straight back up the following season.

If it's any comfort, that team was Sunderland - promoted in 2004/5 following a bottom-placed end to a top-tier campaign two years prior.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]The Sunderland squad who won promotion in 2005 Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images
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The spiraling impact of relegation and not bouncing back


There is a reason most teams who do not bounce back straight away then linger in the second-tier for years to come.



The majority of relegated clubs tend to invest in the first season in which they drop. Maintaining some Premier League players and bouyed by parachute payments, most sides have a real go at getting back up at the first time of asking.

But of those sixty-five percent of teams who do not make it straight back up, a shift in mentality dawns and the belts begin to be tightened.

As the prospect of dwindling and soon-to-end parachute payments looms, and the restrictions imposed by Financial Fair Play Regulations begin to bite, other factors come into play such as a continued decline in sponsorship revenues and a downward spiral in gate receipts and merchandise sales.

Key players begin to drift away having given the Championship a shot for just a season and with a loss of those better footballers so the chances of promotion become even tougher.

And we need look no further to an old friend of ours to see this in action right now and warn us of the consequences of not returning to the Premier League at the first time of asking.



The news that Steve Bruce will only have £1m to spend at Aston Villa this summer is probably good from a Sunderland perspective. As one of the bigger clubs down there and fellow front-runners for promotion, any hampering of the chances in the West Midlands is no bad thing. But the Villains' tale should act as a precautionary one for us Black Cats.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]Steve Bruce waving goodbye to his cheque book at Aston Villa Photo by Jan Kruger/Getty Images
Having invested heavily in an attempt to get back up at the first attempt, having seemingly convinced themselves they had to try and keep pace with Newcastle, the West Midlands club then slumped to a mid-table Championship finish this season. And now with the noose of Financial Fair Play tightening around his neck, Steve Bruce is facing up to a negligible transfer budget this summer.

And we know better than most - as do Hull City for that matter - that Steve Bruce likes a little cash to spend.

Whilst Sunderland's financial state and present structural chaos makes predictions about the next few seasons difficult, Aston Villa's state could so easily be us a year from now.
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Re: A lesson from Steve Bruce: Stats underline just how tough bouncing back from the Championship will be

Post  Hieronymus on Mon May 15, 2017 7:20 pm

Very interesting. Hope the club takes note Very Happy
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Re: A lesson from Steve Bruce: Stats underline just how tough bouncing back from the Championship will be

Post  Nostalgic on Mon May 15, 2017 9:20 pm

One ingredient missing from that thesis is the length of time the various squads had been together. Hull I have no problem with, but a direct comparison to Villa is a bit off centre as their squad ended up strangers following the clearout they had.  We have returning long term injury young players who hopefully will have a point to prove so even though we may not bounce back, I see nothing to prevent us from having a reasonable to good season using the framework of returning players and Moyes' acquisitions.  Who knows. it may be via the playoffs and wouldn't that be fun.

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Re: A lesson from Steve Bruce: Stats underline just how tough bouncing back from the Championship will be

Post  Black Cat Kiwi on Tue May 16, 2017 2:35 am

Nostalgic wrote:One ingredient missing from that thesis is the length of time the various squads had been together. Hull I have no problem with, but a direct comparison to Villa is a bit off centre as their squad ended up strangers following the clearout they had.  We have returning long term injury young players who hopefully will have a point to prove so even though we may not bounce back, I see nothing to prevent us from having a reasonable to good season using the framework of returning players and Moyes' acquisitions.  Who knows. it may be via the playoffs and wouldn't that be fun.
Thought I'd look it up to see what we might be in for. Interesting facts FWIW

Senior Players Bought (+23) excluding loans for 2016/17 by relegated 2015/16 EPL clubs
Newcastle: 13
Aston Villa: 12 (Andre Green (13) not included, U23 internal transfer)
Norwich: 6

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Re: A lesson from Steve Bruce: Stats underline just how tough bouncing back from the Championship will be

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